S04 Ep25 Energy Market Update: Brent surges toward $120 before volatile retreat

Oil markets experienced extreme volatility last week as escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East created significant uncertainty around global supply. Brent crude briefly surged toward $120/b, its highest level since 2022, as it became clear the conflict in the region could be prolonged. Prices later fell sharply, briefly nearing $81/b, after comments from president Donald Trump suggested the war was “pretty much” over, and a report circulated that the US had escorted a tanker through the Strait of Hormuz. Markets were further calmed by an International Energy Agency agreement to release 400 million barrels from strategic reserves.

Over the weekend, attention shifted to Iran’s Kharg Island export terminal, after Trump claimed nearby military facilities had been destroyed and suggested the oil terminal could also be targeted. Such an escalation could severely curtail Iranian exports and trigger retaliatory attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure. With continued strikes and limited reserve buffers, Brent has rebounded above $100/b, and further upward pressure remains likely.

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