NOW Ep114: MTBPS 2025 | Gold’s fiscal glow
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South Africa’s economic story is balancing between risk and resolve, discipline and delivery. As the country prepares for its first Mid-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) under a coalition government, National Treasury faces a difficult equation: stabilise debt, restore credibility and still find space for growth. In this episode of No Ordinary Wednesday, Jeremy Maggs is joined by Investec’s Annabel Bishop, Tertia Jacobs, and Osa Mazwai to unpack the policy choices shaping the 2025 mini budget.
Listen here or watch the discussion on Investec’s YouTube channel.
We explore:
• Why fiscal consolidation remains the cornerstone of market confidence
• How a commodity windfall and better tax receipts are buying Treasury time
• The debate over lowering the inflation target and what it means for growth
• And whether South Africa’s improving structural reforms can finally lift potential GDP
Podcast key moments:
00:00 – Introduction
02:51 – What’s behind the debt-to-GDP ratio divergence?
05:03 – How closely are markets watching South Africa’s debt challenges?
06:40 – How does the debt trajectory intersect with SA’s long-term growth prospects?
08:28 – Inflation targeting expectations
09:35 – Would a lower inflation target risk dampening nominal GDP?
11:36 – Revenue vs spending
13:36 – Searching for a new fiscal anchor
15:21 – Is SA on the path to fiscal consolidation?
17:12 – What’s driving the government bond rally?
18:16 – Progress on structural reforms
20:44 – To what extent is the fiscal story intertwined with commodity cycles?
22:13 – What rating agencies are looking for
24:30 – How the mini budget could influence the MPC’s tone on interest rates
25:57 – What would success look like for the 2025 MTBPS?
Read more on www.investec.com/now
Hosted by seasoned broadcaster, Jeremy Maggs, the No Ordinary Wednesday podcast unpacks the latest economic, business, and political news in South Africa, with an all-star cast of investment and wealth managers, economists and financial planners from Investec. Listen in every second Wednesday for an in-depth look at what's moving markets, shaping the economy, and changing the game for your wallet and your business.
Listen here or watch the discussion on Investec’s YouTube channel.
We explore:
• Why fiscal consolidation remains the cornerstone of market confidence
• How a commodity windfall and better tax receipts are buying Treasury time
• The debate over lowering the inflation target and what it means for growth
• And whether South Africa’s improving structural reforms can finally lift potential GDP
Podcast key moments:
00:00 – Introduction
02:51 – What’s behind the debt-to-GDP ratio divergence?
05:03 – How closely are markets watching South Africa’s debt challenges?
06:40 – How does the debt trajectory intersect with SA’s long-term growth prospects?
08:28 – Inflation targeting expectations
09:35 – Would a lower inflation target risk dampening nominal GDP?
11:36 – Revenue vs spending
13:36 – Searching for a new fiscal anchor
15:21 – Is SA on the path to fiscal consolidation?
17:12 – What’s driving the government bond rally?
18:16 – Progress on structural reforms
20:44 – To what extent is the fiscal story intertwined with commodity cycles?
22:13 – What rating agencies are looking for
24:30 – How the mini budget could influence the MPC’s tone on interest rates
25:57 – What would success look like for the 2025 MTBPS?
Read more on www.investec.com/now
Hosted by seasoned broadcaster, Jeremy Maggs, the No Ordinary Wednesday podcast unpacks the latest economic, business, and political news in South Africa, with an all-star cast of investment and wealth managers, economists and financial planners from Investec. Listen in every second Wednesday for an in-depth look at what's moving markets, shaping the economy, and changing the game for your wallet and your business.
