Higher US inflation and Middle East conflict changes global interest rate outlook

US inflation data for March was higher than markets anticipated, the third successive month of upside surprise, says STANLIB’s Chief Economist, Kevin Lings. US core inflation is nowhere near the US Fed’s 2% target. The main culprits were increases in shelter and motor vehicle insurance costs, but inflationary pressure appears to be broadening out, to, for example, health care and food. All this implies a June interest rate cut is not realistic. Whether there is even a cut this year also depends on whether the oil price surges due to the Middle East crisis.