Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo
Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo
South Africa’s agricultural sector may see an uneven recovery in 2025
We continue to see more evidence that 2025 will likely be an uneven recovery for South Africa’s agriculture. The horticulture (fruits and vegetables), and field crops (grains, oilseeds and sugarcane) are experiencing excellent yield recovery, benefiting from better summer and winter rains. But the livestock and poultry industries face some…
The Far East countries are back buying SA's maize
South Africa's maize exports are back in the Far East export markets. These aren't new territories for our maize. We typically export to them during the seasons of abundance, such as this one. Last season, we did not see many maize exports to the Far East. Our export activity focused…
SA's ample grain harvest may help ease food price inflation concern
South Africa's 2024-25 summer grains and oilseed production estimate was lifted again this month, by 2% from the June 2025 estimate to an expected 18.74 million tonnes (up 21% year-on-year). There is an annual uptick in all the crops, mainly supported by favourable summer rains and the decent area plantings…
Factors shaping the state of South African agriculture
Various factors, both positive and negative, continue to shape South Africa's agricultural sector. Starting on a positive note, early signs suggest a high likelihood that the upcoming 2025-26 summer season may also present favourable rainfall conditions across South Africa. Current forecasts indicate a neutral season, which would be generally favourable…
South Africans can take a few more tonnes of Brazilian coffee
Brazil is a major producer of coffee, accounting for nearly 40% of global coffee production. Other major producers are Vietnam 17%, Colombia 8%, Indonesia 6% and Ethiopia 6%, amongst others. Brazil is also a major coffee exporter to the U.S. Consequently, the 50% tariffs that will take effect on August…
South Africa lifts the ban on Brazil’s poultry imports
The close observers of this letter will recall that when I first argued for South Africa to place temporary restrictions on the imports of poultry products from Brazil, the idea wasn’t for us to be protectionists. Instead, we wanted to ensure that Brazil controls the avian influenza outbreak before we…
It's time for BRICS countries to deepen agricultural trade
In the current world of trade fragmentation, one area the BRICS countries should consider focusing on more in their deliberations this year is deepening intra-BRICS trade. For South Africa's agriculture, this has been a central input in various discussions for some time, reflecting our desire to expand export markets to…
SA’s ample grain and oilseed harvest bodes well for food price inflation
There are some glimpses of positivity that often arise from the agricultural data, which are worth highlighting. Indeed, these do not suggest that all is well with South Africa's agriculture; we continue to struggle with animal disease challenges in cattle farming and the poultry industry. However, if one is in…
Zimbabwe will remain a net importer of maize in 2025-26
Maize demand in the Southern African region is expected to remain strong in the 2025-26 marketing year, which commenced in May (this marketing year corresponds with the 2024-25 production season). One of the countries that imported most maize in Southern Africa in the 2024-25 marketing year was Zimbabwe. The country…
Optimism in South Africa’s agriculture
South African farmers and agribusinesses continue to exhibit resilience and optimism. The Agbiz/IDC Agribusiness Confidence Index (ACI) -- a sentiment indicator of business conditions in the sector -- although declining from the high levels it reached at the start of this year, remains at encouraging levels. After a notable uptick…
Will China open up for more agricultural products from South Africa?
We are yet to receive more details on China's intentions to lower import tariffs for various African countries. What is worth emphasising for now is that, from a South African agricultural perspective, this would be a welcome development. China has profound importance in global agriculture. In 2023, China was a…
South Africa's agricultural exports up 10% in the first quarter of 2025
In a year where trade has dominated the headlines since the U.S. started imposing higher tariffs against its trading partners, agricultural export activity is worth paying close attention to. Encouragingly, the start of the year has remained positive for the sector. In the first quarter of 2025, South Africa's agricultural…
Southern Africa's grain production rebounds
The Southern Africa region is far better regarding food supplies today than a year ago. For example, Zambia's 2024-25 maize crop has bounced back. The government forecasts the harvest to be 3,66 million tonnes, up from 1,5 million tonnes the previous season. This is because of favourable weather conditions and…
South African farms are not under siege
One of the themes that dominated the White House Press session this evening was agriculture – the idea that the farming sector in South Africa is under siege and people are running away. But this could be no further than reality. The South African farming sector or farming community is…
South Africa cushioned the southern Africa region from a maize supply crisis
At the end of April, we completed South Africa's 2024-25 marketing year for maize. This marketing year corresponds with the 2023-24 production season, which was challenged by the mid-summer drought and led to the 22% decline in South Africa’s maize harvest to 12,85 million tonnes. The big help in that…
The excellent wine grapes harvest of 2025 signifies the recovery in SA agriculture generally
We have been saying for some time that 2025 will be a recovery year for South Africa’s agriculture, mainly highlighting the gains in grains, soybeans, and horticulture yields. But I was particularly pleased on May 8, when I received a report from South Africa Wine (SA Wine) indicating that we…
South Africa expects an ample grain harvest this year
On April 30, we had essential data on South Africa's agriculture. The Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) released its third production forecast for South Africa's 2024-25 summer crop production season. There are seven more monthly estimates to come. But on the third estimate, we begin to have some comfort about the…
The excessive rains present some challenges for South Africa's agriculture
We are beginning to be concerned about the impact of these excessive rains on agriculture, particularly summer grains and oilseed regions. The crop has matured in most areas, and some planted earlier are now ready to harvest. However, with these excessive rains, it may prove impossible to access the fields…
Remain focused on domestic matters that are key to SA's agricultural growth
In political economy, there is something called "flooding the zone". Roughly explained, this is when a deluge of information takes people's attention away from what should be a priority. In South Africa's agriculture, we are fortunately not under such an attack through the flood of information. Still, we must continuously…
Four ways South Africa can use to lift the global food security matters in the G20
South Africa, the only African country that is a member of the G20, holds the presidency of the grouping until the end of November 2025. During this time, it could help drive the African continent’s food security agenda. For agriculture, South Africa has set four G20 priorities: * the promotion of policies and…